In the book “Inevitably” one of the leading thinkers of our time, co-founder and chief editor of Wired magazine – Kevin Kelly – talks about the main technological trends for the next 30 years that will change our lives.
We chose five of them and share with you. Read and anticipate!
Virtual reality is a fake world that seems absolutely real. Something like it can be experienced when you watch a movie in 3D on a huge IMAX screen and with the effect of “sound around.” At some moments you are completely immersed in another world, which is happening in virtual reality. But the film does not give the full experience of this environment, because while your imagination travels to other places, the body remains in place. When you feel like you are sitting in a chair. Indeed, in the cinema you need to stay in place and look straight ahead – the only way you can feel the magic of diving into another world.
The world Neo faces in the film The Matrix is a much more advanced version of virtual reality. Even when Neo runs, jumps and fights with hundreds of clones in the computer world, it seems to him real. Maybe even hyperreal is more real than reality. His eyesight, hearing and touch are captured by the synthetic world to such an extent that he cannot notice its artificiality. An even more advanced version of virtual reality is the holographic room, or “hunger”, in the TV series “Star Trek” There, holographic projections of objects and people look so realistic that you can touch them. The simulated environment where you can enter is a long-term dream from the world of science fiction, which is long overdue.
It is difficult to imagine what factor could change everything as much as inexpensive, powerful and ubiquitous artificial intelligence . To begin with, there is no process that has more lasting effects than the gradual improvement of simple things. Even a small addition of the intelligence factor to the current process can raise its effectiveness to a fundamentally different level. The advantages that we get if we make simple things “smart” will have a hundreds of times stronger impact on our lives than the transformations that industrial development has led to. Ideally, this additional intelligence should be free, and not just inexpensive.
Free artificial intelligence, like free Internet, will stimulate the development of the commercial component and science, like no other factor, and will pay off in the shortest possible time.
Until recently, it was widely believed that supercomputers would become the first carriers of artificial intelligence, then perhaps we will get this technology in our home devices, and soon after that we will add consumer models to the heads of our personal robots. Each device with artificial intelligence technology will be separate, we will be able to know exactly where our thoughts end and the program begins.
Sharing content offers great promise. Sites like Reddit and Twitter, which allow users to express their opinions or link to the most important information (news, links, comments), can stimulate public discussion, as newspapers and TV will not be able to do.
Special authors continue to place content on these resources, in part to achieve the wider cultural influence these tools have. The collective influence of the community in proportion to the ratio far exceeds the number of authors of these resources. This is the meaning of social institutions: the sum turns out to be much more components.
In traditional socialism, this dynamic was strengthened with the help of the state. Today, digital sharing is separate from the state and operates internationally.
The latest computers are becoming obsolete. Applications lose power as they are used. Computer codes are beating. The software that has just been released onto the market immediately begins to become decrepit. This happens on its own, you have not done anything. The more complex the device, the more (and not less) attention it requires. The natural desire for change is inevitable even for the most abstract of the things we know – units of information. If you open an application that you do not use every day, you may not recognize it.
The eternal novice is the status of all future users by default, regardless of their age or experience.
In future, each of us will face the fate of a newcomer who will simply struggle to keep up with the progress. And this is why: firstly, most of the most important technologies that will determine our life in the next thirty years have not yet been invented, so they will be new to us. Secondly, since new technologies require endless updates, users will constantly be in the status of newbies. Thirdly, since the cycle of technology obsolescence has accelerated significantly today (phone applications remain relevant for an average of just a month!), Users simply do not have enough time to master something perfectly, until it was replaced by something something else. So they are doomed to the position of eternal novices.
Today, with minimal effort, with just one click, an ordinary person can open a “library of everything in the world.” If you wish, you can read more texts in ancient Greek than a high-ranking Greek aristocrat in the Age of Antiquity. With the same ease you can find the texts of Chinese scrolls – today you have more opportunities to read them at home than the Chinese emperors in the old days. Engravings of the Renaissance and live music by Mozart, to which very few had access at one time, are now always at hand. No matter how you look, nowadays media is at its peak of abundance.
The problem is that we start with so many options that, even choosing only one out of a million, we still get too much.
Super-fine films with a rating of “five stars” are still more than you can watch in your whole life. There are more cool sites to sit on for a long time than the attention you can give them. Moreover, there are more great music bands, books and gadgets designed specifically for you and adapted to your unique desires than you can master, even if it becomes your main job.
We are now at an early stage of filtration development. Like what we filter, it will change a lot. Powerful computing technologies can be applied to the “Internet of everything in the world,” and this will be done. The most trivial product or service can, if desired, be customized to individual needs (but in many cases, there will be no desire). In the next 30 years, all cloud content will be filtered, which will increase the degree of personalization.